The Impact of Economic Changes in the US Presidential Elections
The 2016 US presidential election is definitely a nail-biter. On one hand, we have Hillary Clinton who has years of services as a government official, but is constantly hammered because of her use of the private email and Donald Trump on the other hand, who has no experience as a public servant and has constantly spewed words of hatred and discrimination. Yet, despite the stark difference, the race remains tight.
Throughout August, Clinton had a healthy lead over Trump, and it has gone in double digits in some polls. As September kicks in though, Trump was able to catch up. This might be due to Clinton’s health scare after a video of her showing her stumbling as she was waiting for a van during the 9/11 memorial. Between now and the elections, the race could still change. Experts believe that it is still extremely volatile.
Barring further health issues though, Clinton is seemingly on her way to the presidency. This is also believed even by Trump supporters. They know that Trump has already disparaged a lot of groups just to keep his base.
The economy
There is one reason factor though that could change the course of the competition drastically- the economy. Previous elections have also revealed that the state of the country’s economy has significant impact on the results. In 2008 for instance, Barrack Obama won in an almost electoral college landslide especially after signs of an economic crash have started showing. A Republican president was the incumbent and given the state of the economy because of Bush’s policies, people were made to believe that a change in leadership would take the country in a better direction. Obama even won deep red states like Indiana and North Carolina at that time.
The same thing may hold true in this election. It is quite on the contrary though. Obama has helped the country move out of recession after being 8 years in office. A recent statistics revealed that not only did the US economy become better, income has also gone higher. This is definitely a plus point on Clinton’s side. People would think that under Obama’s administration, the economic policies were effective. Add to that the all-time rating of the president which stands at 58%- a rating that is almost the same when he was first elected.
The other way around
If the economy has a huge impact on the US elections, the results also go the other way. Mexico’s economy for instance has suffered tremendously since Trump has announced his candidacy and even got worse when he won the Republican nomination. It was also revealed during the Brexit referendum. The economy keeps moving back and forth depending on the results of the polls. It totally plunged though when the UK has finally decided to leave EU.
Given the distrust of the economists on Trump’s plan and how his statements could affect international ties of the US, it is possible that the US economy could also take a toll should he win.
It is true that this election is one of the most consequential elections in history. You always hear it every time an election is coming. This time, it is for real. Trump is not your usual candidate. He will most probably shake things to the core. His victory could be extremely uncertain for the US economy. He has also laid out an economic plan which does huge tax cuts to the rich, which has always been proven ineffective.
Photo Attribution:
Featured and 1st image by Lars Plougmann from London, United Kingdom (US election ’08) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
2nd image by unknowns (Open clipart) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons
